COP21: Ten points still pending to achieve the best INDCs
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The COP21 to be held in December in Paris is expected to achieve a robust global agreement, with a very high level of ambition and which will allow the reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in the world. This will mark a new and surely more intense stage in the global fight against climate change. To achieve the goal, the 195 member countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) must submit their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by October 30 of this year, in order to know the commitment of the parties to reduce emissions.
What points are still up in the air to finish fixing them? Camila Bustos, researcher at Nivela; Beatriz Zavariz, climate change specialist at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT); and Gerardo Honty, from the Latin Center for Social Ecology Uruguay (CLAES), explain what information is needed to be more precise about the contributions:
Participation. As Camila Bustos explains, the INDCs are tools to connect domestic debates on development, clean energy and quality of life with the discussion at the international level, but there is still a need to work on a narrative that links contributions to day-to-day life. In other words, the question remains to be answered: What do the INDCs mean for the population and how can they contribute to reducing GHGs?
Implementation. The Nivela specialist maintains that it is not clear how implementation and monitoring plans are being carried out, and that it is vital that information is available. Implementation must be worked on by governments. If these contributions do not receive input from different sectors and ministries, it will be difficult to see how the input goes beyond a requirement on the part of the UNFCCC.
3. Annex the INDCs with the adaptation plans. Latin America negotiates mainly on the issue of adaptation. This is why it is necessary to be clear on how this point will be incorporated into the INDCs. There must be bases and definitions regarding adaptation in order to reduce the region's vulnerability.
4. Transfer of international support. This is valuable information primarily for developing countries. Consistent information is needed on how international assistance for INDC implementation will be received and under what mechanisms it will be executed.
5. Review time. There is still no clear information on how often the implementation of the INDCs will be reviewed. In the absence of clarity on this point, countries will be their own monitors of whether or not they are approaching their reduction targets. Experts recommend a periodic review of collective ambition to assess the effectiveness of the contributions.
6. BAU scenario. Gerardo Honty explains that developed countries, in general, set reduction targets with respect to past emissions, for example, setting a goal of reducing their emissions by 30% with respect to 1990 emissions (base year). This is called an absolute reduction. But developing countries set reductions with respect to expected future emissions (projected emissions). For example, a 30% reduction in emissions under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, i.e. a scenario in which no mitigation measures are applied, by 2030. This is called relative abatement. This implies that countries must first define this BAU scenario and then estimate the reductions, because, according to the specialist, there would be a tendency to inflate the BAU scenario.
7. Sectorized details. Beatriz Zaviz argues that it is necessary to specify the work to be performed by each economic sector of a nation and that this information should be detailed in the delivery of the contributions.
8. Binding. To date, it is not known how the final agreement in Paris, which will refer to the INDCs, will be globally binding. Experts say it would have to be a legally binding document.
9. What happens if a country does not submit its INDC? All nations are expected to submit their contributions to reduce their GHGs. However, if a country does not make its INDC public by October 30, will the time be extended? Experts point out that there is still no information on this, nor whether more time will be given to the most vulnerable countries.
10. Historical responsibilities. How the industrialized countries, most of which are responsible for climate change, will make up for their responsibilities through their INDCs is a question that will hopefully be taken into consideration when the developed nations present their contributions and demonstrate to the most vulnerable countries their participation in the fight against climate change.
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