How will climate change affect coffee production in the world?
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If effective measures to adapt to climate change are not taken, by 2050 Brazil could lose 25% of its production of Arabica coffee, one of the most sought-after coffees in the world. And not only that: the reduction of this production in Honduras, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Mexico would cause economic impacts, as it currently contributes between 1% and 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These are some of the conclusions of the study “Climate change would reduce the aptitude of Arabica coffee cultivation in the main producing regions worldwide”.
The report was developed by specialists from Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). It states that Arabica coffee has a 70% share in the international market, and would be affected by the probable increase of two degrees Celsius in temperature that the planet would suffer in 2050, if the effects of global warming are not counteracted.
Colombia: The impact on a market player
According to the study, in Colombia, one of the four main producers worldwide, Arabica coffee would experience a reduction of up to 16% due to climate change. However, in order to face this problem, this production could be moved to higher altitudes and areas that are home to indigenous groups and biodiverse environments.
Peter Läderach, co-author of the report and CIAT climate change specialist, told ConexiónCOP that coffee is a slow-response crop, so it is important to know in advance what will happen to it.
"In Colombia alone there are 500,000 coffee producers and it is necessary to take measures in the short term, among them, to ensure the planting of good organic matter in the soil to help regulate humidity," he adds. In the medium term, it is necessary to see possibilities of adaptation to higher temperatures and longer droughts; and in the long term, it is necessary to look for other livelihoods in areas where coffee is definitely no longer growing, and to opt for cocoa and other agroforestry systems.".
Coffee in the world
The study indicates that 25 million low-income coffee farmers would be the most affected by climate change, as they depend on the production of this product to survive. Therefore, this research will allow scientists to evaluate new climate-resilient coffee varieties adapted to specific climatic zones.
One form of adaptation proposed by the study is to move coffee crops to areas 300 and 500 meters higher, which could be successful in countries such as Ethiopia or Kenya, where Arabica coffee originated and where the elevations reach an altitude of 2,400 meters above sea level. However, in Brazil this product is already cultivated at low altitudes and cannot be moved to higher altitudes.
Tim Schilling, executive director of the World Coffee Research (World Coffee Research), argues that the need for action in Brazil is more urgent because it is the world's largest coffee producer, but especially because climate change in that country is expected to be more intense than in other countries.
"Brazil has an excellent statewide drought tolerance program that could serve as a model for other countries and to a large extent allows scaling up and accelerating technology through the synergy created by collaborative research.”Schilling concluded.
Source: COP connection
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