6 keys to the success of COP21

By Libelula  hace 10 year

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Article written by María Elena Gutiérrez, research manager at Libelula for the online edition of El Comercio.

According to Sir Nicholas Stern's study, the effects of climate change would expose the world's economies to a recession that could reach 20% of global GDP, which could be avoided with an investment of 1% of said GDP. In Peru, according to a BCR study, a loss of 6% of potential GDP would be generated in 2030; this would be reduced to less than a third in the event that global policies are adopted to stabilize the temperature.

Beyond the economic level, Pope Francis in his Encyclical “Laudato Si” reminds humanity that it has a moral obligation to care for and protect the common home (planet earth), considering an inter- and intra-generational solidarity that looks after the poorest and most vulnerable.

Since the approval of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and its subsequent Kyoto Protocol, the industrialized countries known as “Annex 1” agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 5% compared to 1992 levels, to be measured in the period 2008-2012. But they failed in the attempt because the addiction to carbon through fossil fuels -oil, coal, gas, diesel and its derivatives- has been very difficult to control. On the contrary, other countries emerged basing their development precisely on carbon.

The science has been very clear. In the last century the average temperature of the atmosphere has increased by almost 1°C (0.85°C) compared to pre-industrial levels. And if the world continues with its fossil fuel based production and consumption style, the temperature in this century would increase by 4 to 5°C, which could cause drastic changes in the ecosystems that provide services to us humans. It is as if my 2 year old baby not only has a fever of 1 or 2°C but of 5 or 6°C. This situation would be dramatically unsustainable. That is why the doctor, in this case the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, recommends staying below 2°C and warns that an increase above 1.5°C could generate great risks to some vulnerable regions and ecosystems.

The more than 195 countries party to the UNFCCC, at their 21st Conference (COP21) to be held in Paris in December of this year, need to achieve, after 23 years, a successful binding Climate Agreement, which gives clear signals to countries, companies and civil society that the carbon addiction is over.

But the task is not easy. Achieving full consensus of the 195 parties on a document whose draft is 51 pages long is very complex when there are also many interests involved. That is why the text resulting from Paris should be clear in including at least 6 key elements that set goals, balance and accountability:

1. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), or emission reduction commitments that countries have offered individually, must become mandatory (binding), as the effort made by nearly 147 countries to identify their mitigation and, in some cases, adaptation goals becomes a reality. This will give signals to the productive and economic sectors of the countries to adopt the necessary conditions to guarantee their implementation.
2. The climate finance offer of US$100 billion per year from 2020 to support developing countries to adapt and reduce their emissions must be made effective. We know that this is insufficient for the real investment and preparedness needs to address climate change, but it will send a clear message to build confidence that the commitments made in the context of the Climate Agreement are being met. This climate finance must be additional to that provided to countries for their development (ODI), so a strategy must be put forward to obtain the 100 billion per year between developed countries, multilateral development banks and the private sector.
3. A clear commitment to reach the 2°C target. The INDCs as they stand as of October 1, according to the UNFCCC synthesis report released on October 30, could reduce the rate of temperature increase but will not be sufficient to meet the IPCC's estimate of a 2.7°C increase. The mechanism for increasing the ambition of the INDCs needs to be clearly defined, with greater efforts by developed countries but also by developing countries, which more than 50% conditioned an additional increase in ambition on international cooperation.
4. The Agreement must present a balance between developed and developing countries, in such a way as to show equity with the most vulnerable. Developed countries must be clear on the mechanism for compensating losses and damages to those most affected - such as islands and African countries - as well as how technology transfer and capacity building for adaptation in developing countries will be carried out.
5. It is necessary to build confidence that the commitments assumed in the framework of the Climate Agreement will be fulfilled, laying the groundwork for a system of transparency and accountability across the board. In this regard, a roadmap should be established for the monitoring, review and verification (MRV) system in terms of the INDCs, financing, and other priority issues.
6. Finally, the Climate Agreement should give clear signals to society, to the ordinary citizen, about the new development that is needed in the long term, which includes a change in the pattern of consumption, production and investment, which is not only measured by our individual income or national GDP, but by the solidarity welfare we achieve.

We already know that our child's fever continues to rise and we have a committed doctor, but we lack the maturity of parents or governments to make decisions “today” to avoid an unprecedented global crisis.

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